Joseph S. Nye on Declinist Pundits

Declinist Pundits
By Joseph S. Nye
Foreign Policy

There is a simple three-step secret to success in political punditry: Identify a trend that is already happening, predict it will continue, and then, as the trend progresses, proclaim success. Of course, you have to make sure that you identify a real trend, not a cyclical change following which things will revert to the norm. If you make that mistake, you wind up with egg on your face and have to hope that people forget. So it is with “declinists,” one of America’s great renewable resources.

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